Freed Grain Commentary

SOYBEANS...

Soybeans turned lower on a favorable US Midwest 2 week weather outlook. The current maps suggest 3 rain events over most of the Midwest over the next 7-10 days. Best amounts could be in E IA, N IL, N IN and OH. Rain is also expected in the rest of IA, MN, IL and IN. USDA est the US 2016 soybean crop 73 pct good/ex vs 65 ly. USDA dropped ratings in IA,IN, OH, MO,MN, KS and OH. US 2016soybean crop is waiting for a good rain. Farmer selling has slowed. SX is near 11.10. Range was 11.10-11.40. 11.00 could be key support. US cash barge basis remains strong. USDA announced additional US soybean sales to China and unknown. USDA Acreage and June 1 stocks report is on June 30. Most look for USDA est June 1 US soybean stocks near 845 mil bu vs 627 ly. USDA currently est US 2016 soybean acres near 82.2 vs 82.7 last year. Most est are near 84.0.

 

CORN...

Corn futures turned sharply lower on a favorable US Midwest 2 week weather outlook. The current maps suggest 3 rain events over most of the Midwest over the next 7-10 days. Best amounts could be in E IA, N IL, N IN and OH. Rain is also expected in the rest of IA, MN, IL and IN. US corn barge basis is firm on higher freight cost. USDA est US corn crop 75 pct good/ex vs 71 ly. IA,IN,MO, KS, OH ratings were down from last week. MM and south were up. US farmer is a reluctant seller of corn until more is known about pollination weather. CZ is near 4.08. Range was 4.08-4.35. CZ sliced through 20 day moving ave support near 4.25. 4.00 could be key support. USDA Acreage and June 1 stocks report is on June 30. Most look for USDA est June 1 US corn stocks near 4,540 mil bu vs 4,453 ly. USDA currently est US 2016 corn acres near 93.6 vs 88.0 last year. Most est are near 92.5.

 

WHEAT...

Wheat futures followed corn prices lower. There is too much wheat in the World. USDA est US winter wheat harvest 25 pct vs 19 ly. KS yields are above est. Protein is below ave. USDA also est US spring wheat crop 76 pct good/ex vs 71 ly. ND is 82 vs 79. Globally, EU summer crops are rated above ave, Russia and Ukraine crops are also rated above ave, China crops so far are ok, India crops are down due to weak monsoon and Australia is off to a mostly good start. Some est World 2016/17 wheat crop near 732.0 mmt vs USDA 730.8. USDA Acreage and June 1 stocks report is on June 30. Most look for USDA est June 1 US wheat stocks near 998 mil bu vs 752 ly. USDA currently est US 2016 wheat acres near 49.6 vs 54.6 last year. Most est are near 50.0. WU is near 4,72. Range was 4.71-4.90. KWU is near 4.52. MWU is near 5.34.